Forex cpi indicator
Numerous indicators corroborate: we are in the midst of an economic transition. Will the Powell Fed quickly evolve into a strong counter-forex cpi indicator to the powerful economic transition?
On an intraday basis, we explore these overarchingthemes overlaid on price behavior in my private investing community at MPtrader. Editor’s note: Seeking Alpha is proud to welcome MPTrader as a new contributor. It’s easy to become a Seeking Alpha contributor and earn money for your best investment ideas. Active contributors also get free access to the SA PRO archive. Take a close look at the monthly chart of benchmark 10-year U.
The dominant bear market for yield may still be alive but is not necessarily all that well. A Powerful and Highly Disruptive Bull Market for Yield is Brewing Consider this for a moment: all of the action in yield from around 2009 to present, a period of 9 years, exhibits the behavior and rounded base formation consistent with a technical bottom. The idea that 10-year yield could be in the midst of a maturing 2009-to-2018 base formation should raise eyebrows. The 2009 and 2018 years bookend a time of economic resuscitation during the Financial Crisis to a potentially highly stimulative fiscal “shock” layered on top of a well-healed, if not yet vibrant, recovered U. If particular economic trends and underlying conditions perpetuated the multi-decade bear phase in yield, then in theory, the bottoming phase is incubating the opposite-economic conditions and underlying trends that will have the potential to perpetuate a powerful yield bull market. That market is something that anyone under the age of 50 may not recognize or have experience navigating. From my perspective, the economic conditions breeding within the maturing multi-year technical base formation in yield can be viewed as three distinct market currents: the “Bright Side” economic indicators, the “Dark Side” indicators, and the Efficacy of the Federal Reserve.
The Bright Side Indicators First, the Bright Side Indicators. Three percent GDP growth, and expectations of possibly 3. The list above is not exhaustive, but it provides the sense of improvement and upward momentum in some high-profile data and indicators. These were MIA during the post-crisis years of healing, years characterized by mediocre, economic performance. During the past several months, however, these “Bright Side” Indicators are increasing concern among bond holders and buyers. The Dark Side Indicators By contrast, there are other indicators that I label the Dark Side Indicators. They are characterized by their perceived negative bond market “karma” – their potential to undermine, destroy, and erode bond market psychology.
Dollar that could be putting in a huge, multi-decade top, consistent with reduction of returns on foreign purchases of U. Treasury paper, and which could diminish confidence in the efficacy of the U. Curtailment of foreign buying of U. Both the Bright Side and Dark Side Indicators support intensifying upward interest rate pressures, and both sets of indicators are gaining momentum now, which creates conditions that can only be described as a “a Double Whammy” heading in the direction of the Federal Reserve, the keeper of a still historically and abnormally low Fed funds rate at 1. The Efficacy of the Federal Reserve Until relatively recently, Nov. 9, 2016 to be precise-the day after the presidential election-Federal Reserve monetary policy represented the only economic “growth engine” from 2009 through 2017.